Skip to main content

The Bitcoin 400-Day Cycle: Historical Performance Shows How Low The Bottom Goes

A crypto analyst has projected just how low Bitcoin (BTC) could fall during this market cycle, sharing a timeline for a potential price bottom. The expert has based his bearish outlook on the Bitcoin 400-day cycle, a recurring pattern that has consistently appeared across multiple market phases. Drawing from this historical trend, he suggested that BTC could still face further downside in its current bear market before any long-term recovery stage begins.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Final Cycle Bottom Is In October

Crypto market analyst Bee has provided a definitive timeline for the end of the current Bitcoin bear market based on strict historical market trends. His analysis, shared on X, relies on a specific 400-day cycle pattern that has successfully guided market tops and bottoms across 13 years of BTC’s trading history. 

Based on this framework, Bitcoin is now 252 days into its cyclical bear phase that historically lasts between 364 and 400 days. This suggests that the leading cryptocurrency market still faces an extra 112 to 148 days of severe downward pressure before a true recovery can begin. 

Based on the timeline of this historical setup, Bee estimates that BTC’s absolute price bottom for this cycle could be in October 2026. His calculations, highlighted on his accompanying chart, suggest that Bitcoin could decline as low as $30,000 by the first week of the month. This would represent a more than 75% decline from current all-time highs near $126,000, marking the likely floor before the next recovery.

Bitcoin 400-day

Notably, Bee mentioned that the historical 400-day bear market typically follows a bull run lasting about 1,064 days. This suggests that once a final cycle bottom is reached, the market could reset, potentially paving the way for a fresh bull market.  

The analyst also warned that many investors may argue that the current market is different from past market trends due to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), institutional involvement, or large players like BlackRock, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF provider. However, Bee countered, noting that each past cycle had its own reasons for being “different,” yet the historical 400-day pattern persisted. 

He emphasized that this recurring structure has played out without a single deviation for over a decade. The analyst also pointed out that the structure has consistently held through changing narratives and broader market developments, so there is no reason to believe the current cycle will be any different.

Expert Predicts Next Bottom And Rejects $100,000 BTC In 2026

In a separate but similarly bearish post, crypto analyst Ted Pillows has forecasted the timeline for Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Pillows noted that Bitcoin took about 10 months to bottom after the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bearish cross emerged in 2022. 

Bitcoin cycle bottom

He noted that if a similar trend occurs again, then he expects BTC to reach its final price floor either by the end of the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 or the beginning of the fourth quarter (Q4). His chart pointed toward a likely bottom target between $30,000 and $40,000. Meanwhile, the analyst has crushed hopes for a long-term rebound this year, projecting that a bullish run back toward $100,000 is highly unlikely in 2026. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

from Bitcoinist.com https://ift.tt/5HjM1Wu
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Slow And Steady Wins? Bitcoin To Hit $1M Via ‘Pump’ And ‘Consolidate’ Pattern: Expert

The bull cycle was deemed over when the price of Bitcoin tragically fell toward $75,000 earlier in March 2025. Having notched an all-time high of above $100,000, most investors feared that the premier cryptocurrency had already reached its top for the current cycle. Contrary to popular belief, the price of Bitcoin has since forged multiple new all-time highs, with the current record high at around $122,800. Interestingly, the now-popular market consensus is that it is only a matter of time before the BTC price reaches a seven-figure valuation. How Will Bitcoin Hit $1 Million In 10 Years? In a recent post on the X platform, Blockware Bitcoin analyst Mitchell Askew has joined a growing list of experts to put forward a $1 million projection for the premier cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, the price of BTC is expected to achieve this major milestone over the next 10 years. What’s interesting is that Askew expects the Bitcoin price to reach a $1 million valuation in the next ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Sam Bankman-Fried’s Cellmate Says He Never Owned Up — And That’s Why A Pardon Won’t Come

Sam Bankman-Fried says he would “absolutely” welcome a pardon from US President Donald Trump. Trump, for his part, has already said no. Cellmate Speaks Up Michael Avenatti, who shared a prison unit with the former FTX chief, went further than Trump’s January dismissal. In a series of posts on X, Avenatti said SBF never once admitted any wrongdoing during their time together — not privately, not in passing, not ever. “Not once did he admit he’d done anything wrong,” Avenatti wrote, adding that redemption begins with accepting responsibility. Without that, he argued, a pardon request carries no real weight. Avenatti is no neutral observer. He is himself a convicted felon, currently incarcerated for extortion and fraud. His criticism of SBF’s character comes from someone with his own considerable legal baggage. Sam Bankman-Fried and I were prison bunkmates and I know him well. So I read this with more context than most. Sam and I argued ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Bitcoin Remains Range-Bound As Volatility Declines – Analyst Explains Price Action

Bitcoin has experienced frustrating price action in recent weeks, leaving investors impatient about its short-term direction. The price has been testing crucial supply levels between $98K and $100K, struggling to break out as uncertainty dominates the market. The lack of a clear move has led to speculation about whether BTC is preparing for a breakout or another correction. Adding to the uncertainty, the market was hit by negative news on Friday when crypto exchange Bybit was hacked, resulting in the theft of $1.4 billion in ETH. The incident caused fear and volatility, briefly dragging prices lower. However, Bybit responded quickly to reassure investors, easing some of the initial panic and stabilizing the market. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range. Crypto expert Daan shared an analysis on X, noting that BTC is still ranging while volatility is steadily decreasing. As price compression increases, traders are on high alert for a potential explosive move....
Post a Comment
Read more