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Crypto Systems Could Be Outpaced By Quantum Tech By 2033, Says Hoskinson

Crypto may need a major overhaul sooner than most people think. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson pointed to a specific proposal — Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361 — as a potential path forward for gradually moving Bitcoin users away from older wallet addresses toward ones built to resist quantum attacks.

Speaking at Consensus Miami, Hoskinson said the window to prepare may be closing faster than the industry has assumed.

A Deadline The Industry Cannot Ignore

Hoskinson put the odds of a capable quantum computer arriving before 2033 at above 50%. That kind of machine, he said, would be powerful enough to crack the cryptographic systems that currently protect digital wallets, private keys, and transaction signatures across most major blockchain networks.

If that happens, bad actors could potentially access wallets without authorization, forge transaction signatures, or disrupt how blockchains reach agreement. He was direct: this is no longer a problem for the next generation to solve.

Most blockchains today — Bitcoin included — rely on traditional encryption methods that were never designed with quantum computing in mind.

Those systems work by making certain math problems extremely difficult for classical computers to solve. A sufficiently advanced quantum machine could blow through those same problems in a fraction of the time.

Cardano’s Quantum Defense Plan

Cardano is not waiting around. According to Hoskinson, the network already has a research program focused on quantum security, with partners involved and specific technical goals in place.

The main focus is lattice-based cryptography, a form of encryption that quantum systems would find far harder to break than older models.

Cardano also plans to adopt federal quantum-resistant standards — known as FIPS 203 through 206 — which were developed to protect digital systems against future quantum-powered attacks.

Hoskinson noted that rolling out these changes on Cardano would be relatively straightforward. The network runs scheduled hard fork upgrades annually, which gives it a built-in mechanism for adopting new security standards without major disruption.

Crypto Faces A Longer Road

For Bitcoin, the path is less clear. BIP-361 has been proposed as a way to phase in quantum-resistant wallet addresses over several years, but Bitcoin’s upgrade process is slower and more contested than Cardano’s.

Hoskinson acknowledged the difficulty but said a migration of that kind is achievable. He suggested Cardano could carry out a similar transition with relative ease given its existing upgrade structure.

Whether Bitcoin moves fast enough remains an open question — one the broader crypto industry may not be able to put off much longer.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView



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