Skip to main content

Bitcoin Gets Stuck Between Two Giants As Price Fumbles, Which Will Prevail?

Bitcoin’s latest price action has turned into a fight for control around one of the most important areas. The price has been struggling to recover after falling back below $80,000, and the weakness is now taking place below two major on-chain levels that are converging at $78,000.

On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is around $78,000, while the True Market Mean is sitting close to $78,300. These two levels have now converged, creating a heavy ceiling just above Bitcoin’s current price.

Bitcoin Is Stalling Below The Level Recent Buyers Need Most

Bitcoin’s price action is currently trapped between two forces. One side is $74,000, where buyers are still trying to defend. The other is the $78,000 area, where on-chain valuation models are now meeting at almost the same point. The next break may decide whether the latest weakness is another range-bound dip or the start of a deeper correction below $70,000.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis is currently at about $78,000. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is one of the cleanest ways to understand the pressure on newer Bitcoin investors. It measures the average acquisition price of coins held for less than 155 days, which means it measures the breakeven point of the more reactive investors.

Bitcoin

There’s also Bitcoin’s true market mean, which makes the $78,000 price level even more important. The true market mean tracks the cost basis of actively transacted supply, and according to Glassnode, it has always acted as a dividing line between bear-market and bull-market regimes. It is currently near $78,300, almost exactly where the short-term holder’s cost basis is sitting.

Bitcoin Needs To Hold Above This Level

Many recent buyers accumulated between $75,000 and $78,000, pushing their cost basis close to the true market mean. That can support a recovery if demand is strong, but it can also create fast downside pressure if demand is low.

However, spot demand is fading, and this is placing pressure on the $74,000 price level. BTC fell to this level last weekend and rebounded, but the bounce was shallow. At the same time, US Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has started to weaken again, with flows turning negative over the past two weeks and recording a $733.43 million outflow in the last 24 hours alone.

If BTC is going to push meaningfully higher from here, spot demand likely needs to step back in and defend $74,000. That isn’t going so well right now, as the Bitcoin price is currently down by 3.4% in the past 24 hours and trading at $73,230.

Glassnode’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is at 1.56, which confirms that Bitcoin has seen net positive capital flow since the $60,000 floor. However, that reading is still below the 2 to 5 range that has always appeared during the early stages of more persistent bull markets.

Bitcoin

from Bitcoinist.com https://ift.tt/lYohfOc
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Coinbase Adds Wormhole To Spot Trading As Solana Infrastructure Tokens Gain Visibility

Coinbase listings still matter, even in a market that likes to pretend every token is already globally accessible. The exchange ’s decision to add Wormhole puts another major infrastructure name in front of a much broader pool of traders. That matters because Wormhole is not just another speculative ticker. It sits inside one of crypto’s most important, and most debated, categories: cross-chain connectivity. For more details, visit the official Coinbase platform. TL;DR Coinbase is adding support for Wormhole’s W token on spot markets. The listing gives a higher-profile venue to a token tied to cross-chain infrastructure. It also keeps Solana ecosystem names in front of mainstream exchange users. Why A Wormhole Listing Is Interesting Bridge and messaging infrastructure often do not get the same retail attention as consumer-facing protocols, but they matter enormously to how liquidity and applications move between ecosystems. Coinbase’s listing helps push t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Ethereum On Exchanges Crashes To Historic Low Amid Market Volatility, A Bullish Signal For Price?

Ethereum saw a bounce back above the $3,000 price market , with bullish sentiment gaining momentum among investors, especially those on centralized exchanges. Even with the market experiencing sideways movements, the overall supply of ETH on crypto exchanges has fallen sharply, hitting unprecedented levels. Lowest Supply Of Ethereum On Exchanges Recent signals from on-chain metrics indicate that the Ethereum market environment is undergoing a quiet yet significant transformation. This unfolding trend is due to the sharp drop in the supply of ETH available on cryptocurrency exchanges. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Fatigue? Monthly On-Chain Transactions Drops As Activity Slows Down As reported by Coin Bureau on the social media platform X, ETH supply on centralized exchanges has hit levels not seen in years. With more holders choosing long-term storage, staking, and self-custody over keeping their assets available for trade, this significant supply drain indicates a change in i...
Post a Comment
Read more

Bitcoin Remains Range-Bound As Volatility Declines – Analyst Explains Price Action

Bitcoin has experienced frustrating price action in recent weeks, leaving investors impatient about its short-term direction. The price has been testing crucial supply levels between $98K and $100K, struggling to break out as uncertainty dominates the market. The lack of a clear move has led to speculation about whether BTC is preparing for a breakout or another correction. Adding to the uncertainty, the market was hit by negative news on Friday when crypto exchange Bybit was hacked, resulting in the theft of $1.4 billion in ETH. The incident caused fear and volatility, briefly dragging prices lower. However, Bybit responded quickly to reassure investors, easing some of the initial panic and stabilizing the market. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range. Crypto expert Daan shared an analysis on X, noting that BTC is still ranging while volatility is steadily decreasing. As price compression increases, traders are on high alert for a potential explosive move....
Post a Comment
Read more