Prediction markets put the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law this year at 59%, down from a high of 68% following a Senate committee vote earlier this month.
That slide reflects growing uncertainty around a bill the crypto industry had hoped would clear Congress before year’s end.
A Slim Margin In The Senate
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in May, but the vote was far from a show of broad support. Only two Democratic lawmakers joined Republicans in backing the bill, raising questions about whether it can clear the full Senate floor without changes.
Committee Chairman Tim Scott called the vote bipartisan. Critics say two votes barely qualifies.
The bill still needs to pass both chambers of Congress and be signed by US President Donald Trump before it takes effect. That path is now looking longer than the crypto industry had anticipated.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon appeared on Fox Business this week and made clear that the banking sector has no plans to stand aside.
He said banks would continue to fight the current version of the bill, citing provisions he believes give crypto companies an unfair advantage over traditional financial institutions.
The Core Dispute
At issue are two main points. Dimon said the bill effectively allows crypto firms to pay interest on customer deposits and stablecoin balances — something banks see as direct competition on their own turf.
He also argued the bill does not hold crypto service providers to the same Anti-Money Laundering rules, Bank Secrecy Act requirements, and capital reserve standards that banks must meet.
His proposed fix was straightforward: if crypto companies want to offer yield-bearing accounts, they should get a banking charter and follow the same rules. He said no one in the banking industry would simply accept the bill as written.
Armstrong In The CrosshairsDimon also directed pointed comments at Coinbase and its CEO, Brian Armstrong, who has been at the center of lobbying efforts to push the bill through Congress. Dimon acknowledged that banks could lose the fight, but said the opposition would not back down regardless.
Armstrong’s role in the negotiations has drawn attention from both sides of the debate, with reports indicating Coinbase has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Washington lobbying efforts.
The bill’s fate now rests on whether enough senators can be won over before the end of the year.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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