Skip to main content

Bitcoin Is Playing Out The Same Cycle Again On A Bigger Scale

Bitcoin’s latest rebound has not done much to settle the argument among crypto analysts over where this cycle really is right now. 

A technical analysis posted on X claims the market is once again tracing the same structure seen in prior bear phases, only this time with a slower tempo, deeper institutional involvement, and a more controlled trading environment. However, the outlook of this analysis is that the downtrend is still not complete.

Familiar Bitcoin Script Is Showing Up Again

The concept of the analysis is that the Bitcoin price keeps moving through the same emotional and structural framework from one cycle to the next. In that framework, the Bitcoin price first pushes into a parabolic advance, then enters distribution, suffers a violent break lower, stages a misleading recovery, and eventually grinds into a final capitulation. 

That is the same pattern that appeared in 2018 and again in 2022, and in this reading, 2026 is now occupying the same late-stage position, only on a larger scale and with lower volatility.

That timing element is important, and it supports an extended bearish case in the months to come. History shows prior cycle bottoms formed a year after the all-time high, not immediately after the first large drawdown. By that logic, the Bitcoin price may still be too early in the process for a lasting bottom, especially if this cycle peak is treated as the October 2025 high at $126,080.

Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?

The technical structure is only part of the case. Technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as BLADE on the social media platform X leaned on on-chain signals, particularly long-term holder stress and NUPL, to argue that the reset is incomplete. 

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures whether the network is sitting on aggregate paper profits or losses. The farther it moves from zero, the closer the market tends to get to major extremes. What this means is that true cycle lows usually arrive when investors are much deeper in pain, and sentiment has turned miserable.

CryptoQuant said on April 1 that Bitcoin spot demand is still in deep contraction despite growing institutional buying. This means that the market’s internal strength has not fully caught up with headline demand from large allocators, and the Bitcoin price might continue to struggle until it does.

There’s also an interesting template that Bitcoin might follow based on its previous two major bear markets. The 2017 bull run peaked and gave way to a bear market that ultimately caused an approximately 84% drawdown from top to bottom. The 2021 cycle followed a similar script, with Bitcoin’s top-to-bottom decline ending at about 77%.

At current prices around $74,680, Bitcoin is trading 40.8% below that October top, which means there could be more downside ahead. Furthermore, previous bear market bottoms arrived about 360 to 370 days after the prior cycle’s peak. This sequence would point to a potential cycle bottom somewhere in Q3 or Q4 2026.

Bitcoin

from Bitcoinist.com https://ift.tt/VyRwOaP
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Bitcoin Goes Official: Texas Becomes 1st US State With BTC Reserve

Everything is big in Texas, many would say. Today, the state is looking past its current state of finances by adding Bitcoin to its coffers–and making things bigger in terms of its economic implications. Texas became the first US state to establish a crypto reserve . On March 7, 2025, legislators passed Senate Bill 21, which gives the green light to the state to direct public funds toward Bitcoin and other digital assets. The action has elicited both support and concern, with some viewing it as a prudent financial hedge and others warning of potential pitfalls. A Push For Bitcoin In The Lone Star State For months, Texas has been seeing increasing favor for the idea of a Bitcoin reserve. Senator Charles Schwertner introduced SB 778, a measure that proposes establishing a strategic stockpile. Including the top crypto asset into the state’s financial reserves was meant to help cushion inflation and economic uncertainty. Texas officials, especially Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, wh...
Post a Comment
Read more

Liczba milionerów kryptowalutowych wzrosła o 40%. Rynek przekracza 3,3 biliona dolarów

Rozwój rynku kryptowalut widać również bo liczbie osób, których portfel kryptowalutowy przekroczył milion dolarów. Według najnowszego raportu Henley & Partners, liczba inwestorów posiadających majątek przekraczający milion dolarów w cyfrowych aktywach wzrosła o 40% w ciągu ostatniego roku. Aktualnie na świecie jest już 241 700 milionerów, jeśli chodzi o waluty cyfrowe. Wzrost ten zbiegł się z historycznym momentem, gdyż w połowie 2025 roku kapitalizacja całego rynku kryptowalut przekroczyła 3,3 biliona dolarów . Bitcoin wciąż liderem wzrostów Największy udział w tworzeniu nowych fortun ma niezmiennie Bitcoin. Liczba posiadaczy portfeli BTC, których wartość przekracza milion dolarów, wzrosła aż o 70% rok do roku i wynosi dziś 145 100 . Jeszcze bardziej imponująco wygląda grupa tzw. Centymilionerów, czyli inwestorów posiadających ponad 100 milionów dolarów w Bitcoinie. Ich liczba wzrosła o 63% , osiągając poziom 254 osób. Co więcej, liczba miliarderów BTC podskoczyła do 17, notu...
Post a Comment
Read more

Slow And Steady Wins? Bitcoin To Hit $1M Via ‘Pump’ And ‘Consolidate’ Pattern: Expert

The bull cycle was deemed over when the price of Bitcoin tragically fell toward $75,000 earlier in March 2025. Having notched an all-time high of above $100,000, most investors feared that the premier cryptocurrency had already reached its top for the current cycle. Contrary to popular belief, the price of Bitcoin has since forged multiple new all-time highs, with the current record high at around $122,800. Interestingly, the now-popular market consensus is that it is only a matter of time before the BTC price reaches a seven-figure valuation. How Will Bitcoin Hit $1 Million In 10 Years? In a recent post on the X platform, Blockware Bitcoin analyst Mitchell Askew has joined a growing list of experts to put forward a $1 million projection for the premier cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, the price of BTC is expected to achieve this major milestone over the next 10 years. What’s interesting is that Askew expects the Bitcoin price to reach a $1 million valuation in the next ...
Post a Comment
Read more