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Bitcoin Realized Price Model Signals Correction May Still Have Weeks To Run – Details

Bitcoin is under critical selling pressure as bulls fail to reclaim the $90,000 level, while bears struggle to break below the $81,000 support zone. The market remains stuck in a tightening range, with macroeconomic uncertainty and global instability continuing to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements have added fuel to the volatility, further shaking risk assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the fragile outlook, some data suggests the worst may be behind. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights based on the Bitcoin Realized Price by Inter-Cycle Cohort Age model — an indicator designed to measure the duration of market corrections through the appearance of a “Dead Cross.” This occurs when the realized price of newer investors crosses below that of longer-term holders, signaling a potential correction phase within a bull cycle.

According to Adler, the current Dead Cross began 28 days ago. Historically, similar phases have lasted an average of 85 days. If this pattern holds, the market could spend approximately 57 more days in its current state before resolving. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound, it offers context for where Bitcoin stands in its correction and hints at how much longer the pressure may last.

Bitcoin Correction May Have 57 Days Left As Market Faces Tariff Fallout

Bitcoin remains under pressure after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs during Liberation Day, triggering a wave of selling across global markets. The announcement added a new layer of uncertainty to an already tense economic backdrop, amplifying volatility and shaking investor confidence in both traditional and crypto assets. Bitcoin, known for its sensitivity to macroeconomic risk, reacted with increased selling pressure, further extending its correction phase.

Despite the panic, some analysts suggest this downturn may follow a familiar historical pattern. Adler’s insights using the Bitcoin Realized Price by Inter-Cycle Cohort Age model highlight the duration of correction phases by tracking the lifespan of a “Dead Cross,” which occurs when the realized price of short-term holders dips below that of long-term holders.

Bitcoin Realized Price by Inter-Cycle Cohort Age | Source: Axel Adler on X

Adler’s analysis marks each active Dead Cross period with a red circle on the chart. Historical data shows that these phases last an average of 85 days. The current Dead Cross has been active for 28 days. Based on past trends, that leaves approximately 57 days until a potential resolution, assuming history repeats.

Importantly, Adler emphasizes that a true bear market is typically confirmed only when Bitcoin drops below its 365-day moving average — something that hasn’t occurred yet. For now, this phase remains classified as a correction within a broader bull cycle.

While the road ahead may still involve volatility, Adler’s analysis offers a measured view: the correction could be closer to its end than many fear. Investors will now look for signs of stabilization or strength as this historical pattern plays out in real time.

BTC Price Action Details: Key Levels To Watch

Bitcoin is trading at $83,000 after failing to reclaim the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) near $84,800, signaling ongoing weakness in the short term. The repeated rejection at this key technical level has left bulls on the defensive, struggling to regain momentum as bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market.

BTC struggles below the 200-day MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The $81,000 support zone, which has held up during previous dips, is now under pressure and looks increasingly fragile. If this level breaks, a deeper correction could follow, potentially pushing BTC into the mid-$70,000 range. With macroeconomic fears still looming and broader financial markets facing instability, Bitcoin’s next move remains highly uncertain.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope for bulls. A decisive breakout above the $88,000 resistance level would be a strong signal that buyers are regaining control. Such a move could confirm the beginning of a recovery phase and shift short-term sentiment back toward the upside.

For now, BTC remains stuck between a weakening support and firm resistance. The coming days will be critical as bulls attempt to defend key levels and avoid further downside while watching for any breakout opportunity that could revive market momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 



from Bitcoinist.com https://ift.tt/75eAkXD
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